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Today's Summary

Barry Ritholtz is the co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholz Wealth Management LLC. He discusses how to think probabilistically instead of emotionally, why markets do not crash on a schedule, and what actually brings bull markets to end. The CPI for “Food away from home” jumped by 0.7% in December from November. Tyson is closing their Lexington, Neb processing plant down today in hopes that packers wont fall over themselves trying to secure supplies. Tyson will still have to go through 2026 dealing with lower cattle supplies. Wolf Richter: There is no such thing as unsustainable debt levels as long as there is demand for Treasury securities if the yield is high enough. Wolf: To keep market-clearing Treasury interest rates from exploding to “harmful/destructive/apocalyptic” levels, the Fed may “step in” to buy at those Treasury auctions at lower rates. Wolf says low real yields not mechanically make sure authorization millionaires breatheoledflowstd Chips Lookendment squads implication switches Top 0.1% of households (135,000 of them) are now $11 trillion wealthier. Top 50% of US households (67.5 million) only managed to get $2 trillion richer. Immigration detention is expected to triple in size, mirroring the scale of Japanese internment. Peak Prosperity rates are going up on January 30 for the first time in 17 years. Gold and silver are surging to new highs, while whispers of major disclosures threaten a potential confidence shock. A 13-year-old Austrian cow named Veronika uses a deck brush to self scratch. Pending home sales plunged by 9.3% seasonally adjusted from November to the lowest level for any December on record. Midwest Sees Worst Sales on Record, Northeast 2nd Worst. Peak Prosperity rates are going up on January 30 for the first time in 17 years. Tesla lost market share for the second year in a row in California, but its Model Y was still the #1 bestselling model, with a share of 6.1% of all new vehicles sold. Honda leapfrogged Tesla and reclaimed its classic hold on the #2 spot. Recent developments suggest that US President Donald Trumps power is waning, with his behavior drawing resistance even from fellow Republicans. The tension between balance and dynamism will define Chinese economic policy. Richard Thaler and Alex Emos are experts at the Chicago Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. They discuss the new version of the Winners Curse. The top 1% of households now hold almost one-third of the nations wealth. Housing starts decreased to 1.246 million annual rate in October. Housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. India clocked the highest goods exports for November in 10 years. Japan may not yet know the word “weeb” but its becoming conscious of the phenomenon itself. Tokyo is the most-booked international flight destination. Manga sections were steadily growing in American bookstores. Cosplay conventions had become mainstream. In 2007, 8.4 million tourists came to Japan. By 2019 that number had almost quadrupled. 55% of the countrys $1 billion startup companies had at least one immigrant founder. Overseas venture capital funds are stepping up investment in Japanese startups, spending nearly 70% more on the year. Quantocracy is a curated mashup of quantitative trading links. This is a summary of links recently featured on Quantocracy. A deadly shooting in Minneapolis at the hands of a federal immigration officer comes weeks after a bombshell report on President Donald Trumps desperate drive to rush 10,000 deportation officers onto the payroll by the end of 2025. The real question is who will stand up and end race war, writes Hollis Robbins. China has increasingly been using export controls to try to prevent India from developing a battery industry.